While complete figures will not be available for weeks, preliminary data indicate that the 2002 midterm election continued the trend of the declining turnout–possibly one of the lowest turnouts in 50 years.

The Center for Political Participation at Allegheny College estimates that 36 percent of voting age Americans came out to the polls on Election Day. This number is slightly lower than the last midterm election, when it was 37 percent. The last election with a turnout of less than 36 percent was in 1942, when it was a mere 33 percent.

“Some states have not compiled all the returns, so the exact number may be a tad higher,” noted Daniel M. Shea, Director of the Center. “But either way, the results are disheartening. For years we’ve seen these numbers decline. The electoral apathy that plagues our nation is historic, and this election proves that new medicines are needed.”

According to Shea, the most surprising thing about this year’s low turnout is that political parties and candidates spent huge sums of money. “Each party doled out record amounts of unregulated soft money. This is not simply a record for off-year elections, but a record overall. The money grab has been stunning. And for all of this money, turnout remains paltry. One has to wonder what the parties are getting for their investments.”

As with previous midterm years, turnout in some states improved, while in others there were substantial drops. In several smaller states, where the races were extremely tight, turnout grew by several percentages. For example, in South Dakota, where a U.S. Senate seat was hotly contested, turnout jumped by an estimated 12 percent. A similar bump was seen in Tennessee, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

On the other hand, larger states like New York, California, and Illinois, had considerably lower turnout. California, for example, saw their turnout drop from 37 percent in the previous midterm to roughly 28 percent in this election.

Participation improved in Pennsylvania, where turnout was 38 percent—about five percent higher than the last midterm election.

“The strongest reason for this change,” suggested Angie Jack, a Student Fellow at the Center for Political Participation, “is that the last gubernatorial race, in 1998, was never close. We think this time, many voters expected a close outcome and that uncertainty brought more to the polls.”

The modest turnout in the election mirrors recent primary elections. Turnout in the 38 states that held statewide primaries in 2002 was an average of just under 18 percent of the voting-age population.

As to why fewer and fewer voters seem interested in elections, Shea could only speculate. “There is widespread cynicism about the importance of elections and about the integrity of elected officials. This comes from many sources, including negative campaign ads.”

Shea also lays the blame on the doorstep of political parties. “Party operatives have found that it is more efficient to target likely voters and convince them to support their candidate, than to mobilize non-voters. This would explain how so much party activity–so much party money–could do so little to get people to the polls.”

Shea recommends the rejuvenation of local mobilizing structures, like grassroots political parties, as part of the solution. He also suggests same-day registration and two-day voting events, perhaps on the weekends, are worth exploring.

“More than anything,” notes Shea, “we have to change the hearts and minds of Americans. We have to convince them that voting should be celebrated and that Election Day should be a time for rejoicing. Elections need a new PR campaign!”

The Center for Political Participation was established at Allegheny College in October of this year. It is dedicated to developing new strategies and mechanisms for promoting political participation among all students, with a particular focus on young Americans.

For more information about Allegheny College’s Center for Political Participation call (814) 332-6201.